Iraq’s Paradoxical State

In recent days, Iraqi resistance groups have notably reduced their attacks on Israel, a shift being attributed to diplomatic efforts from Baghdad, but more honestly should be attributed to the threat of Israel striking back and annihilating the factions, a threat that was taken seriously enough for many of the leaders to leave Iraq.

However, despite the threat and Prime Minister Al-Sudani’s efforts, influential faction Kataib Hezbollah remains defiant, vowing to continue their operations against Israel and expressing continued support for Gaza and Lebanon.

The recent re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, known for his strong support of Israel during his previous term, is certain to have an impact. This suggests potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy that could further embolden Israeli actions.

Iraq finds itself in a paradoxical state—both the most stable and the most fragile it has been in years. Israel knows this. The U.S. knows this. Prime Minister Al-Sudani knows this.

The issue looms like the Sword of Damocles; the threat of instability dangles ominously.

It will likely be wielded as a tool to pressure Al-Sudani's government in the weeks to come, particularly in relation to loosening Iraq's ties with Iran.