Syria Update 12th January 2025 - A few "issues"

Sleep, Eat, Regime Change, repeat, we feel we’ve seen this story before somewhere?

It’s a mess already as Syria continues to draw varied responses from neighbouring states with security, diplomacy, and insurgent activities dynamically shaping developments on multiple fronts, Iraq has opted for a strategy of “keep out of it” secure the border and be diplomatic, while the roles France, Turkey, Israel and the United States tend to be somewhat more self-serving.

Iraq continues constructing concrete barriers and deploying surveillance technology to deter cross-border infiltration by militant groups and has also sought to align its border security measures with Syria through discussions with the regime in Damascus, facilitated by an anticipated visit from Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Sheibani.

Prime Minister Al-Sudani has articulated a willingness to enhance ties, but frames Iraq’s approach as one rooted in respect for sovereignty and the expressed will of the Syrian people, not that any of the latest events have been the will of all the Syrian people, this diplomatic posture contrasts with the limited agency afforded to Syrians in general.

In Northern Syria, possible French involvement has become a contentious issue. Discussions regarding the possible deployment of French forces to support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and secure border areas have met resistance from Turkey with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan publicly stating any military coordination in Syria must involve the United States, not France, he also was cheeky enough to say France should repatriate their nationals from the ISIS prisons, Oof.

The SDF remains important to international counterterrorism efforts, particularly from the perspective of Western allies, including the United States yet despite their value, the SDF faces increased risks as Turkey continues its military operations against areas under Kurdish-led control. On 10 January, Turkish warplanes bombed Serrin, south of Kobani, amid ongoing resistance from local residents who have vowed to defend critical infrastructure such as the Tishrin Dam.

More joyful news as ISIS appears to be regrouping, with its Syrian factions asserting dominance within the organisation's leadership. The Badia region has emerged as a key area for ISIS activity, with the group reportedly sidelining Iraqi and multinational leaders through purges. Over the past two weeks, six major figures, including an Iraqi ISIS operative, have been eliminated and the terror groups has expanded its operations across multiple areas, including Homs and Deir ez-Zor, with increased sleeper cell activity, raids on Syrian army depots, reports suggesting their managed to seize a large quantity of weapons, one can anticipate ISIS to re-group and announce new leadership soon.

The new Syrian Ministry of Defense continues to try and bring armed factions under state control with the ministry working with 60 plus factions aimed at integrating their fighters and weapons into the formal military structure to establish a new Syrian Army.

This week also saw the emergence of Egyptian factions of HTS splintering away to form a new group (The January Revolutionaries) with the goal of overthrowing Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi…. All going well then :/

In general, the situation is fluid, changing daily, information is tough to verify, however the following locations are best avoided:

The Iraqi / Syrian Border due to the Increased security measures and concerns over infiltration by armed groups, including ISIS cells.

Kobani and Surrounding Areas, Ongoing Turkish airstrikes and resistance.

Badia Region, Homs and Deir ez-Zor – Surge in ISIS activities, including internal purges, raids, and sleeper cell operations.

Northern Syria, Tishrin Dam, Residents resist Turkish military advances.