The Trump train is arriving, Can Iraq Prevent Further Escalation on, and from its Soil?

In recent days, Iraqi Prime Al-Sudani has voiced a strong position on the escalating violence between Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Rooted in his support for Palestinian statehood and a unified Arab stance, Sudani’s statements show some desire for stability, relief, and accountability. However, Iraq’s actions—or lack thereof—raise pressing questions about its ability to control militant factions operating within its borders, particularly those targeting Israel.

As many drone attacks on Israeli territories originate from Iraq, the situation threatens to shift the conflict’s boundaries, drawing Iraq into to direct confrontation with Israel. The past week alone has seen repeated launches from Iraqi soil, aimed primarily at northern Israel but also extending to other Israeli territories, including Eilat.

While Iraq has condemned the use of its land for such attacks, tangible steps to curb these actions or hold responsible parties accountable remain limited. This tenuous position puts Iraq on a precipice, teetering between its diplomatic stance and the realities of internal and regional pressures.

The Iraqi Prime Minister has consistently criticised the international community’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, describing it as a "total failure." At the recent conference in Riyadh he urged a strong and united Arab response to support Palestinian and Lebanese people, envisioning an Arab-Islamic fund for reconstruction in Gaza and Lebanon.

This call to action extends beyond rhetoric: Al-Sudani considers it a moral duty for Arab and Islamic nations to aid Palestinians and Lebanese in avoiding starvation and despair.

According to Sudani, Iraq’s commitment is firm. Iraq recognises Palestinians as the rightful owners of their land and is a staunch supporter of establishing a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. He has urged the Arab and Islamic world to leverage its collective cultural, economic, and political influence, yet, as he appeals for solidarity, the conflict looms closer to home.

Iraq faces significant domestic and regional challenges. Factions within Iraq, particularly the Popular Mobilisation Forces and other Iran-backed groups, are behind the drone launches against Israel and is little evidence of concrete measures to control these groups or prevent them from launching further attacks. Reports of ballistic missile storage on Iraqi soil supported by Iran are easy to find, the Government though permits this and further more funds the groups responsible under the guise of the PMF.

So, while Sudani seeks Washington's support to dissuade Israel from retaliatory actions within Iraq’s borders, the lack of response from the United States highlights the limited leverage Iraq has in influencing the geopolitical landscape. Moreover, Washington’s silence on this issue show a level of skepticism about Iraq’s commitment to addressing internal threats or its capacity to restrain Iranian-backed militias operating with impunity.

The attacks on Israel will surely continue, and Israel's patience will wear thin, and with Trump inbound for a second term the likelihood of direct Israeli military responses increases.

For Iraq to advance its vision of regional solidarity and a unified stance on the Palestinian issue, it will need to address the factions within its borders more assertively. This means making difficult decisions to curb the influence of Iran-backed groups and demonstrating to both the region and the world that it can uphold its diplomatic commitments. By doing so, Iraq would not only mitigate the risk of Israeli retaliation but also enhance its credibility on the international stage as a sensible, investible country, not a state sponsor of terror.