The US Turns the screw to end the factions

Joe Wilson U.S. Representative of South Carolina appears to have set his sights on Iraq. As highlighted in our last Iraq report, there is a significant focus on dismantling the remaining elements of the "Resistance Axis," the Iranian-sponsored factions. This initiative has gained momentum since Antony Blinken's visit to Iraq in late 2024, during which he expressed U.S. concerns directly to Prime Minister Al-Sudani.

Over the past year, we've witnessed the annihilation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the fall of Assad in Syria, yet continued resistance support lies in these groups in Iran, Iraq, and Yemen.

Iraq based factions such as Al-Nujaba and the Badr Organization remain under scrutiny.

While the Badr Organisation is not currently listed as a terrorist organisation, discussions in Congress in 2020 nearly led to its designation. Under a Trump administration, this status could very well change, in the last two weeks, rumours have surfaced about potential changes within the Popular Mobilisation Forces, a paramilitary organisation formed to combat ISIS but including groups classified as terrorist organisations by the West.

Given the current push to eliminate the Iranian "Resistance Axis," these factions are unlikely to be allowed to persist unchecked. The incoming Trump administration, known for its swift and often unpredictable actions raises the chance of change.

Prime Minister Al-Sudani, for his part, has shown resolve in attempting to rein in these factions, speaking out publicly and seemingly aligning Iraq closer to the U.S. and UK for future stability. However, resistance from groups like Al-Nujaba and the Badr Organisation is likely, particularly given their spiritual leader, Al-Sistani, who called for the formation of the PMF and has vehemently opposed U.S. influence, referring to the U.S. as "the devil."

Both Al-Sudani and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein face a challenge in the weeks ahead, how to mitigate the risk of sectarian violence within their ranks while navigating the growing external pressure. The likelihood of direct targeting of faction leaders, whether in Iraq or Iran, seems high in the near term, likewise the designation of the Badr Organisation as a terrorist group as a first step, to turn up the heat.